Round 23 predictions: Fremantle Dockers’ top-four hopes, who makes finals, wooden spoon battle and more

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Camera IconCan Michael Walters and Freo get the W - and will it be enough to sneak into the top four? Credit: Paul Kane/via AFL Photos

Who makes the top four? Who makes the top eight? And can the Eagles dodge the spoon? Our team of writers gaze into the crystal ball ahead of a massive weekend.

Who wins Brisbane v Melbourne – and why

MARK DUFFIELD: Brisbane wins. They have won 18 of their past 20 at the Gabba. The two losses came in a final when they lost tall forwards pre-game and mid-game and earlier this year when they had 10 players out in health and safety protocols. They are building.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: Such heavy consequences for this one. Brisbane are 9-1 at the Gabba this season and just seem to find a way to get it done at home. The Lions in a close one.

CHRIS ROBINSON: Melbourne. The Gabba factor is real, but the trust factor in big games is even more real. The Dees have travelled exceptionally well in the past two seasons, and the Lions have question marks aplenty when it comes to the heat of must-win matches.

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MITCH WOODCOCK: Brisbane. Melbourne haven’t beaten the Lions at the Gabba since 2018, and while their overall record isn’t bad (11-15), I think this game is so tight that the difference will be the home-ground advantage.

BEN SMITH: Melbourne. It may be at the Gabbattoir, but Brisbane have flattered to deceive all season long, despite the engine-room efforts of Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage. The Demons defence should be able to handle an underwhelming Lions forward line, and I’m backing the Melbourne midfield to get the job done under the bright lights.

Camera IconLachie Neale and the Lions face a huge test. Credit: AAP

Will Fremantle take care of business against GWS?

MARK DUFFIELD: The dearth of tall forwards is a worry but their road form says they can do it. A lot will depend on which GWS turns up.:The ‘don’t cares’ that played Sydney or the whole-hearted lot that nearly beat the Dogs.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: Yes, but not without a scare. All Freo’s tall forward options being either unavailable or sore is an interesting conundrum. Calls for them to rest players for finals are bizarre though. Without a top-four spot they can’t go far in finals anyway.

CHRIS ROBINSON: Yes. Freo’s road form stacks up, and don’t worry about any firepower problems – their stingy defence will be too much for a Giants side with nothing to play for. Expect a sub-60 GWS score.

MITCH WOODCOCK: Yes, just simply because they’ve matured and got too much to lose, while the Giants are a bit of a rabble.

BEN SMITH: An emphatic yes. The Giants have been a huge disappointment all season long, and any new coach bounce from interim Mark McVeigh has long fizzled out. While Fremantle’s form may have waxed and waned, there is a confidence about this team that they can get the job done in big moments.

Will the Bulldogs stumble against Hawthorn in Tassie?

MARK DUFFIELD: No. You know the cue is in the rack when Sam Mitchell puts James Sicily in the midfield while Tom Lynch is killing his young defence. The Hawks like Tassie but maybe not enough to pinch this.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: Reckon the Dogs can get it done, but the nervous celebrations could be a bit like Manchester United when they got the job done at Sunderland back in 2012 only to hear in horror what was happening elsewhere. And they’ll have to wait a couple of hours, not a couple of minutes.

CHRIS ROBINSON: This will be much closer than some people are expecting, but I have to believe the Dogs find a way to at least give themselves a shot at reaching September in the year after reaching the GF.

MITCH WOODCOCK: No. The Bulldogs are such an attacking side and the Hawks aren’t the best defensive unit this season, so I can see it becoming a bit of a shootout that the Dogs will win.

BEN SMITH: No. It is the most slippery of banana peels, travelling to Tasmania for a match-up against an up-and-down Hawthorn, but I believe the Bulldogs will get the job done. Sure, their midfield has not performed to its own lofty standards and they have been a defensive mess at times this year, but this game is ripe for Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore to will the sons of the west to eighth spot.

Camera IconThe pressure is on Marcus Bontempelli and the Dogs. Credit: AAP

Who wins the Carlton – Collingwood blockbuster?

MARK DUFFIELD: I am backing the Blues, if they bring what they brought last week and learn from some last week – both their game and Collingwood’s. Take care of the ball late and take care of Nick Daicos all game.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: The Blues and the Dockers! Carlton and Collingwood have both played out thrillers against Melbourne over the past fortnight and despite the results, the stats out of those two games indicate the Blues are surely a huge chance here.

CHRIS ROBINSON: Whoever handles the pressure best in front of an expected 85,000-plus crowd with everything to play for. That trust factor indicates it’ll be the Pies, with these clubs at opposite ends of the scale when it comes to performing when the heat is on across recent weeks.

MITCH WOODCOCK: I’m tipping the Blues, mainly because they’re so unpredictable that it almost seems a Carlton thing to do and win one they shouldn’t.

BEN SMITH: Collingwood… I think. Carlton may be fortunate to have Patrick Cripps available, but it is somewhat counteracted by their increasingly lengthy injury list. It would be a sad end to a promising season for the Blues, but I’m going to say the Pies – one of the two most fun teams to watch this season, along with Sydney – will win another tight one, dooming their rivals to finish ninth.

Camera IconCollingwood's Jack Ginnivan. Credit: AAP

So then what does your predicted top eight look like? (List in order)

MARK DUFFIELD: 1 Geelong, 2 Sydney, 3 Brisbane, 4 Fremantle, 5 Melbourne, 6 Collingwood, 7 Richmond, 8 Carlton.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: 1 Geelong, 2 Sydney, 3 Brisbane, 4 Fremantle, 5 Melbourne, 6 Collingwood, 7 Richmond, 8 Carlton.

CHRIS ROBINSON: 1 Geelong, 2 Sydney, 3 Melbourne, 4 Collingwood, 5 Fremantle, 6 Brisbane, 7 Richmond, 8 Bulldogs.

MITCH WOODCOCK: 1 Geelong, 2 Sydney, 3 Brisbane, 4 Fremantle, 5 Melbourne, 6 Collingwood, 7 Richmond, 8 Carlton.

BEN SMITH: 1 Geelong, 2 Sydney, 3 Melbourne, 4 Collingwood, 5 Fremantle, 6 Brisbane, 7 Richmond, 8 Bulldogs.

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Will West Coast avoid the wooden spoon?

MARK DUFFIELD: Yes. It will get ugly in Geelong but provided Gold Coast takes care of North the percentage difference will be too big.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: Yes. The Eagles have enough percentage gap on North Melbourne to save themselves, so the issue is whether the Kangas can beat Gold Coast which is not out of the question. The more interesting question – if you polled West Coast’s membership this week on their preference for pick 1 or 2 in the national draft what would the result come back as?

CHRIS ROBINSON: Yes. As detailed here, the Eagles won’t be caught on percentage even if they get hammered to the tune of 125 points in Geelong, and the Suns have to finish an encouraging campaign on a high against a two-win Kangas.

MITCH WOODCOCK: No. Gold Coast are running out of gas and have a lot of injuries, so I like North Melbourne to beat them. And there’s NO WAY the Eagles are beating Geelong.

BEN SMITH: Yes. Might be a different story if Jeremy Cameron was playing, but with the spearhead out, Tom Barrass will be able to focus all his energy on Tom Hawkins. The Eagles will probably still lose by more than five goals, but if Adam Simpson’s men play with the same pressure and intensity they’ve shown in the back half of the season, they can at least stem the bleeding.

Camera IconLuke Shuey and the Eagles are still in the wooden spoon frame. Credit: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

Fearless prediction: What will be the biggest moment of the final round?

MARK DUFFIELD: A Charlie Curnow contested mark and long goal in the last minute to get Carlton to the eight.

BRADEN QUARTERMAINE: Collingwood and Carlton at the ‘G to decide their respective top-four and top-eight fates is just a dream finale. Expect last-quarter controversy, agony and ecstasy in equal parts.

CHRIS ROBINSON: One of the Magpies’ spark plugs – a Jordan de Goey, Jamie Elliott or Jack Ginnivan type – kicking a big fourth-quarter goal to seal Sunday’s game and shake the MCG to its core.

MITCH WOODCOCK: Ken Hinkley to do a massive backflip and announce after Port Adelaide’s clash with Adelaide that he’s leaving the club to coach North Melbourne.

BEN SMITH: Collingwood stage a dramatic late comeback to break the Blues’ hearts, with Ginnivan kicking the sealer with a little under two minutes to play.

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